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Summary: After Super Tuesday, Romney will drop to 3rd and Huckabee will take 2nd with delegates. McCain will be ahead of everyone by 300+ delegates. Here's my count: McCain 635 delegates, Huckabee 320 delegates, Romney 245 delegates and Paul will drop afterwards. Stats don't include delegates from Illinois. Read on...

Over the last couple of months I've been following the Republican candidates enough to feel comfortable about giving some predictions for Super Tuesday.

First off, let me start off by talking a little bit about last night's debate. I think McCain did not do too well, or I should say could have done better. Romney was detailed and clear about his plans and ideas and I respect him for that. The whole point of this debate is to answer questions. And I think Romney did that exceptionally well. McCain on the other hand seems to always talk about his status or how he was a war hero etc.. I am grateful and honored that he gave his life for our country, but at the same time I get tired of hearing the same thing repeated several times throughout the debate. Senator McCain, please answer the questions!

I didn't get to see the whole debate so I can not really comment too much on it but from what I did see about Huckabee, I was a little disappointed that he did not get more time. And, sometimes I feel like he sidesteps the questions as well. But at the same time I believe he answers them in a positive and responsible manner. And Ron Paul, poor guy, I don't think he's cut out to be a president. I could see him being a great judge or someone in the position of making decisions based off the Constitution. Bless his soul.

And now onto the predictions. As of right now McCain has 97 delegates, Romney 74, Huckabee 29, and Ron Paul has 6. If I understand how these delegates work here's what I've come up with...

The following states will share their delegates, meaning give the delegates percentage of votes each candidate receives: Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. There are a total of 281 delegates from this group of Super Tuesday states. I predict Huckabee will win 78 delegates, Romney 105 delegates, McCain 85 delegates, and Ron Paul 13 delegates.

There are 13 winner take all states. I predict Huckabee will win Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, and Missouri - these four states will give Huckabee 208 delegates. McCain is going to win Arizona, Delaware, California, Montana, New Jersey, New York, West Virginia giving him 452 delegates from these states. And Romney will win Connecticut and Utah giving him 66 more delegates.

There is one more state out of this whole picture and that is Illinois. This state confuses me and I'm not sure how the delegates will be handed out. There are a total of 70 delegates for Illinois. There seems to be a lot of Huckabee support so if it is a proportional state, meaning what percentage of votes you get are the percentage of delegates to get, then I suspect Huckabee will get somewhere around 30 delegates. But I'm going to leave leave Illinois out of the total calculation since I'm not sure how that is handled.

If the above pans out somewhat accurate then McCain would have around 635 delegates, Romney 245 delegates and Huckabee would end up passing Romney with 320 delegates from the Super Tuesday states. And again, this does not include Illinois. I have left Ron Paul out of the total calculation since he won't win very many delegates. I suspect that after Super Tuesday he will drop out of the race.

It seems that a Republican has to win 1191 delegates to be the Republican candidate for 2008. If that is the case then after Super Tuesday McCain would be more than halfway there. There were still be room for Huckabee and Romney to compete but I'm not sure how easy it will be to beat McCain at that point. And if Ron Paul steps out I believe some of the supporte
rs for Ron Paul will probably move to Huckabee and Romney. I seriously doubt Ron Paul supporters will support McCain, so that could be interesting shift for Huckabee and Romney.

My support goes for Huckabee and I wish him the best on Super Tuesday. Godspeed Huckabee! (read more)